A new insight into the contribution of environmental conditions to tropical cyclone activities          下载免费PDF全文

WANG Yuan  SONG Jinjie  WU Rongsheng 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2013,27(3):344-355

The changes of tropical cyclone (TC) activities in response to influencing environmental conditions have been paid more and more attention to in recent years. The potential contributions of single and multivariate environmental variables to annual TC frequency and intensity from 1970 to 2009 are investigated in this study. Instead of using correlation coefficient that assumes a set of samples satisfying the normal distribution, a quantitative measurement is formulated based on the information theory. The results show that dynamic environmental variables play an important role in variations of TC activities over the western North Pacific, North Atlantic, and eastern Pacific. These dynamic factors include wind shear between 850 and 200 hPa and 850-hPa relative vorticity. However, the effects of thermal factors on TC activities are distinct over different basins. The thermal environmental variables only have significant contributions to TC frequency and intensity over the eastern Pacific as well as to TC frequency over the North Atlantic. It is found that the primary factors influencing TC activities are indeed not the same over different basins because of the differences in atmospheric conditions and their changes across different areas. The effects of dynamic variables should be considered more in the regions such as the western North Pacific where the thermal conditions are always satisfied.  相似文献   

Is rainfall intensity significant in the rainfall–runoff process within tropical rainforests of northeast Queensland? The Hewlett regression analyses revisited     

Andrew J. Howard  Mike Bonell  Don Gilmour  David Cassells 《水文研究》2010,24(18):2520-2537

Following the statistical analyses of long‐term rainfall‐runoff records from research basins in humid temperate latitudes, Hewlett and co‐workers extended the global challenge to disprove their findings that rainfall intensity was non‐significant. This paper responds to Hewlett's challenge as no preceding analyses have involved forested basins in a tropical cyclone‐prone area. Based on a 7 year rainfall‐runoff record, quickflow (QF), peak flow (QP) and quickflow response ratios (QRR) were regressed as dependent variables against rainfall parameters (intensity, P_i, amount, P), storm duration, D and antecedent flow, I. These data sets were categorised into total streamflow (Q) classes and stratified into three seasons, (monsoon, post‐monsoon and dry) for forested and cleared catchments. Where rainfall variable collinearity met acceptable levels, the addition of P_i to regression models including P, D, I contributed up to 9% and 66% of the respective variations in quickflow and peak flow. For the highest Q storm classes (monsoon), P_i alone accounted for up to 67% and 91% of the variation in Q_F and Q_P respectively and was the dominant influence on Q_P for all seasons. The very high rainfall intensities experienced in the monsoon season is a causal factor why these results differ from those of other research drainage basins. Surprisingly, P_i continued to have a significant influence on Q_F for dry season classes when less‐intense rainfall occurs. Further the results were similar for both catchments across all seasons. P was the dominant independent variable affecting Q_F above a threshold Q of 50 mm (monsoon), as rainfall contributes directly to saturation overland flow and return flow under saturated conditions. Further although QRR increased with increasing Q for each season, the regression results for that parameter were poor possibly due to the non‐linearity of the rainfall‐runoff relationship. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

南海夏季风爆发与西北太平洋热带气旋活动   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄菲  李元妮 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2010,40(8)

利用1965—2007年美国台风预警中心(JTWC)的热带气旋(TC)及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,初步研究南海夏季风爆发与西北太平洋(包括南海)热带气旋活动之间的关系。结果表明,南海夏季风的爆发伴随着西北太平洋(尤其南海区域)TC生成个数和活动频数比爆发前有显著增加,而超过1/2的年份南海夏季风爆发前2候和爆发候西北太平洋(150°E以西)有TC活动,表明TC活动可能是南海夏季风爆发的触发机制之一。在大多数(77%)南海夏季风爆发偏早年,爆发前2候和爆发候西北太平洋TC活动偏多,且TC生成位置偏西;而大多数(77%)爆发偏晚年份,爆发前2候和爆发候没有TC活动。季风的偏早爆发受季节内振荡、西北太平洋TC活动、中纬度冷空气活动等复杂因素影响,而季风的偏晚爆发则主要受季节内振荡影响。  相似文献   

The relationship between the canonical ENSO and the phase transition of the Antarctic oscillation at the quasi-quadrennial timescale     

LIU Changzheng  XUE Feng 《海洋学报(英文版)》2010,29(6):26-34

A correlation analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO) at the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) timescale.It is found that the cold tongue index (CTI) and the AAO index (AAOI) are negatively correlated with about a 7-month lead-time,while they are positively correlated with about a 15-month lag-time.To further explore this relationship,complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is employed in the QQ sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies from 1951 to 2002.The results indicate that,during the ENSO cycle,there exists one kind of global tropical wave of wavenumber 1 (GTW1) propagating eastward.With the traveling of GTW1,the tropical SLP anomaly tends to intrude into the southern mid-latitudes.Accordingly,three strong signals travel synchronously along the circumSouth-Pacific path,and a relatively weak signal extends eastward and poleward over the South Ocean in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector.Following the propagation of these signals,the AAO phase tends to be reversed progressively.As a result,there exists an evident lead-lag correlation between CTI and AAOI.It can be concluded that ENSO plays a key role in the phase transition of AAO at the QQ timescale.It is also noticed that this regular relationship is only evident in the canonical ENSO events,for which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend westward from the tropical eastern Pacific.On the other hand,the similar relationships are not found among those atypical ENSO events for which SST anomalies spread eastward from the central Pacific,such as the 1982-1983 ENSO event.  相似文献   

闸坡站风暴潮增水与热带气旋登陆点及路径的关系     

魏晓宇  刘雪峰 《台湾海峡》2010,29(1):122-127

将1992～2006年15a间影响和登陆闸坡站的热带气旋按照登陆点和移动路径进行分类．研究各类热带气旋在闸坡站引起的风暴潮增水峰值的出现时间与热带气旋登陆点及移动路径的关系，定性分析热带气旋风场结构对风暴潮增水的影响并经过2007年至今风暴潮增水预报过程中的实例检验．结果表明：闸坡站的增水类型与热带气旋的登陆地点和路径关系密切．在闸坡站登陆的东北行热带气旋引起的风暴潮增水多出现在登陆前，其他路径则出现在登陆时或登陆后；在闸坡以西登陆的热带气旋引起的风暴潮增水峰值一般发生在登陆时或登陆后1h以内；在闸坡站以东登陆的热带气旋引起的风暴潮增水峰值一般发生在登陆前10h以上；而其他类型的热带气旋引起的风暴潮增水由于个例较少规律尚不明显．  相似文献   

Salinity and periodic inundation controls on the soil‐plant‐atmosphere continuum of gray mangroves          下载免费PDF全文

Saverio Perri  Francesco Viola  Leonardo Valerio Noto  Annalisa Molini 《水文研究》2017,31(6):1271-1282

Salinity and periodic inundation are both known to have a major role in shaping the ecohydrology of mangroves through their controls on water uptake, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, gas exchanges, and nutrient availability. Salinity, in particular, can be considered one of the main abiotic regulating factors for halophytes and salt‐tolerant species, due to its influence on water use patterns and growth rate. Ecohydrological literature has rarely focused on the effects of salinity on plant transpiration, based on the fact that the terrestrial plants mostly thrive in low‐saline, unsaturated soils where the role of osmotic potential can be considered negligible. However, the effect of salinity cannot be neglected in the case of tidal species like mangroves, which have to cope with hyperosmotic conditions and waterlogging. We introduce here a first‐order ecohydrological model of the soil/plant‐atmosphere continuum of Avicennia marina—also known as gray mangrove—a highly salt‐tolerant pioneer species able to adapt to hyperarid intertidal zones and characterized by unique morphological and ecophysiological traits. The A. marina's soil‐plant‐atmosphere continuum takes explicitly into account the role of water head, osmotic water potential, and water salinity in governing plant water fluxes. A. marina's transpiration is thus modeled as a function of salinity based on a simple parameterization of salt exclusion mechanisms at the root level and a modified Jarvis' expression accounting for the effects of salinity on stomatal conductance. Consistently with previous studies investigating the physiology of mangroves in response to different environmental drivers, our results highlight the major influence of salinity on mangrove transpiration when contrasted with other potential stressors such as waterlogging and water stress.  相似文献   

Humans,megafauna and environmental change in tropical Australia     

MICHAEL I. BIRD  LINDSAY B. HUTLEY  MICHAEL J. LAWES  JON LLOYD  JON G. LULY  PETER V. RIDD  RICHARD G. ROBERTS  SEAN ULM  CHRISTOPHER M. WURSTER 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(5):439-452

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不同强度热带气旋对中国降水变化的影响     

杨慧  任福民  杨明仁 《地球科学进展》2019,(7):747-756

基于1960—2017年2 000多个气象台站逐日降水数据和中国气象局热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料集,采用客观天气图分析法(OSAT)识别得到TC降水。研究表明,中国TC降水总体呈显著下降趋势,较12年前的研究结果下降趋势变缓;TC盛期(7~9月)降水占到TC总降水的78.5%,TC盛期降水和TC非盛期降水均呈显著下降趋势。TC降水气候趋势在空间分布上以减少为主要特征,并表现出明显的地域差异,自南向北呈"减少—增多—减少"的分布型,减少趋势中心位于广东和海南。按TC影响期最大强度分级(弱TC、中等强度TC和强TC)研究不同强度TC降水的变化,结果显示,强TC降水表现出显著减少趋势,主要决定着TC总降水的影响范围和趋势等主要特征。进一步分析发现,影响TC频数在1960—2017年呈显著减少趋势,并在1995年发生突变;对1995年前后2个时期的对比研究显示,与前一时期(1960—1994年)相比,后一时期(1995—2017年)影响TC活动频次在20°N以南的海域呈现出显著的减少趋势,减少大值中心位于南海北部,而且这一特征也主要由影响TC中的强TC所决定;强TC的这一变化趋势导致了华南地区尤其是广东和海南TC降水日数的减少,进而使得TC降水减少。  相似文献   

西北太平洋热带气旋生成数在1990年代中期发生突变的气候环境特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李德琳  肖子牛  周秀华  信飞 《热带气象学报》2015,31(3):323-332

利用CMA热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析1949—2013年西北太平洋(包括南海)TC生成数的变化特征,发现在1995年前后发生由偏多到偏少的显著突变。对影响TC生成的主要气候环境要素场进行对比分析表明,在1995年之后,虽然赤道西太平洋海表温度偏高,热带太平洋为类La Ni?a的异常海温型,但垂直上升运动减弱、对流层纬向风垂直切变幅度增大、海平面气压升高,均不利于TC的生成,其综合影响导致TC数目显著减少。对1995年前后两个时期TC生成多、少典型年份海洋大气环境场的对比分析表明,1995年以前热带海洋表面温度对TC生成有相对重要的影响,而1995年以后风场环境对TC生成的影响作用更重要。   相似文献   

Yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index in China     

YiZhou Yin  Yong Luo  FengJing Xiao  XianMei Lang 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(3):558-568

A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.  相似文献